My Predictions: 2019 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
Back to 15 nominees this year.
With that amount of nominees, I don't know how they'll play this. I'll go with 5. Always hoping for more. With that in mind, I've included some Dark Horse picks.
Inductees
Def Leppard - Fan vote winner always gets in. This will be 7 out of 7.
Janet Jackson - Here's where I get skeptical about her chances. When the nominees were announced, NomCom member Alan Light said Jackson deserved "one more chance" after the big year she had with Lifetime awards and World Tour. What does that mean? That she had a low voting % in her 2 previous years?
Stevie Nicks - She's a solid 2nd with the fan vote. But I've been thinking this isn't a sure thing. Most will know she's already inducted. And if they really think about her solo career, they could have second doubts.
Todd Rundgren - Right, he's nominated as a Performer, but he's had a hand in so many other musical adventures, that voters are going to reward his whole career. Or maybe the Rock Hall will (hint: Musical Excellence) He's one of those guys who has seemed to work with everyone, and that includes many current Hall members. That's not always a guaranteed induction. But he's also been a long-time snub, and sometimes that is more than enough.
Zombies - 4th try. This well-loved band is this year's sentimental fave. They could be the last of the British Invasion bands that has any type of shot. Fan favorites, and if they carry the Classic Rock vote, they could finally make it.
The Rest
Cure - Last nominated in 2012. If Depeche Mode and the Smiths can't get in, then I don't think they will after two tries. The current voting bloc (as of 2018) just doesn't go for British Alt-Rock (i.e. last year's Eurythmics nomination).
Devo - Kind of cult favorites, with one big hit, who may be too much of a cult favorite to go in on their first nod.
John Prine - This year's surprise nominee. He's a beloved figure among his peers. I don't think there's enough of them to put him in right away. Tempted to list him as a Dark Horse, though. One final thing: I've been an advocate for Willie Nelson's Hall induction since 2012. Not sure why he keeps getting bypassed. The Country Outlaw movement had a distinct "Rock & Roll" attitude.
Kraftwerk - You think R&B acts have a tough time getting in nowadays? Now on their 5th try, they suffer at the ballot box from the voting bloc's lack of love for Electronic/Synth acts. No matter if they are German or British.
LL Cool J - He's a NomCom fave, now on his 5th try. I will, as I've done since his first nomination in 2010, say that his TV presence has diluted his musical legacy. But some Rock Hall Watchers think this could be his year. I hope they're right, but for now I can't quite pick him. Dark Horse
MC5 - Just never enough support. But they are a 4X nominee, so who knows? And their music is as relevant today as it was in 1968.
Radiohead - You could hear gasps when the inductees for 2018 were announced and Radiohead weren't on there. Are they running into the same Alt-Rock bias that Nine Inch Nails, Smiths, Cure and Depeche Mode encountered? Or maybe it's a British Rock thing. This year's results will be the answer. Dark Horse candidate.
Rage Against the Machine - On their 2nd try, a band you shouldn't count out. Tom Morello seems to be everywhere. Besides being a NomCom member, he's politically active, and keeps putting out music.
Roxy Music - This one has me puzzled. Why am I not more sure about them? Too British? Too affiliated with the Art-Rock movement? Not enough U.S. success? Something is keeping me (and I think voters) from picking them. Dark Horse.
Rufus featuring Chaka Khan - We'll see what happens with Janet Jackson this year. But truth is, 70's R&B continues to get treated like an afterthought by voters. Again, good that the NomCom is sticking with them. 2 noms solo, 3 with Rufus.
Also: My post on the (maybe, somewhat new) Rock Hall Singles Category
With that amount of nominees, I don't know how they'll play this. I'll go with 5. Always hoping for more. With that in mind, I've included some Dark Horse picks.
Inductees
Def Leppard - Fan vote winner always gets in. This will be 7 out of 7.
Janet Jackson - Here's where I get skeptical about her chances. When the nominees were announced, NomCom member Alan Light said Jackson deserved "one more chance" after the big year she had with Lifetime awards and World Tour. What does that mean? That she had a low voting % in her 2 previous years?
Stevie Nicks - She's a solid 2nd with the fan vote. But I've been thinking this isn't a sure thing. Most will know she's already inducted. And if they really think about her solo career, they could have second doubts.
Todd Rundgren - Right, he's nominated as a Performer, but he's had a hand in so many other musical adventures, that voters are going to reward his whole career. Or maybe the Rock Hall will (hint: Musical Excellence) He's one of those guys who has seemed to work with everyone, and that includes many current Hall members. That's not always a guaranteed induction. But he's also been a long-time snub, and sometimes that is more than enough.
Zombies - 4th try. This well-loved band is this year's sentimental fave. They could be the last of the British Invasion bands that has any type of shot. Fan favorites, and if they carry the Classic Rock vote, they could finally make it.
The Rest
Cure - Last nominated in 2012. If Depeche Mode and the Smiths can't get in, then I don't think they will after two tries. The current voting bloc (as of 2018) just doesn't go for British Alt-Rock (i.e. last year's Eurythmics nomination).
Devo - Kind of cult favorites, with one big hit, who may be too much of a cult favorite to go in on their first nod.
John Prine - This year's surprise nominee. He's a beloved figure among his peers. I don't think there's enough of them to put him in right away. Tempted to list him as a Dark Horse, though. One final thing: I've been an advocate for Willie Nelson's Hall induction since 2012. Not sure why he keeps getting bypassed. The Country Outlaw movement had a distinct "Rock & Roll" attitude.
Kraftwerk - You think R&B acts have a tough time getting in nowadays? Now on their 5th try, they suffer at the ballot box from the voting bloc's lack of love for Electronic/Synth acts. No matter if they are German or British.
LL Cool J - He's a NomCom fave, now on his 5th try. I will, as I've done since his first nomination in 2010, say that his TV presence has diluted his musical legacy. But some Rock Hall Watchers think this could be his year. I hope they're right, but for now I can't quite pick him. Dark Horse
MC5 - Just never enough support. But they are a 4X nominee, so who knows? And their music is as relevant today as it was in 1968.
Radiohead - You could hear gasps when the inductees for 2018 were announced and Radiohead weren't on there. Are they running into the same Alt-Rock bias that Nine Inch Nails, Smiths, Cure and Depeche Mode encountered? Or maybe it's a British Rock thing. This year's results will be the answer. Dark Horse candidate.
Rage Against the Machine - On their 2nd try, a band you shouldn't count out. Tom Morello seems to be everywhere. Besides being a NomCom member, he's politically active, and keeps putting out music.
Roxy Music - This one has me puzzled. Why am I not more sure about them? Too British? Too affiliated with the Art-Rock movement? Not enough U.S. success? Something is keeping me (and I think voters) from picking them. Dark Horse.
Rufus featuring Chaka Khan - We'll see what happens with Janet Jackson this year. But truth is, 70's R&B continues to get treated like an afterthought by voters. Again, good that the NomCom is sticking with them. 2 noms solo, 3 with Rufus.
Also: My post on the (maybe, somewhat new) Rock Hall Singles Category
Labels: 2019 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, 2019 Rock Hall Predictions
posted by Tom Lane at 9:15 AM
