My Predictions: 2020 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame
16 nominees this year.
With a pathetic 3 female nominees again. I've bitched about this from the moment the nominees were announced. When will the tone-deaf heads of the Hall (Landau, Peresman, Harris) make changes to correct this? Why can’t they bring more women onto the NomCom to balance out the men’s club that it’s become?
No pre-1965 acts nominated. How does my long-standing proposal for a Veterans Committee look now?
Also a whopping 2 R&B acts. Maybe 3 if you count the Michael McDonald Doobies era. I’m depressed just typing this.
With 16 nominees, I don't know how they'll play this. Last year it was 7/15. For 2020, I say 6 inductees, but hoping 7. But I topped out at 6.
Looking over the ballot, there were only 2 names that were shoo-ins. With many more in contention for the last 4 slots.
Inductees
1. Dave Matthews Band - 7/7 of the last Fan Vote winners got in. Will this be the year the spell is broken? I guess the streak has to end. Here's the thing: most people aren't paying attention to the Hall's statement that the Top 5 fan vote leaders count for 1 ballot only. A majority believe that the winner gets inducted. The DMB are a well-respected band, with a passionate fan base. But until the streak is broken. I have to go with the Fan Vote Winner again this year.
2. Doobie Brothers - There are only 2 easy picks for me this year. And this is one of them. A Long Runnin' Classic Rock staple, who are still out touring.
3. Nine Inch Nails - With his movie and TV scores, Trent Reznor is as much a musical presence as he was during NIN's heyday. He's even warmed up to the idea of a Rock Hall induction. A sly way of garnering more votes?
4. Notorious B.I.G. - When the nominees were first announced I thought this was a slam dunk. A
couple months later, and I'm not so sure. 2Pac got in right away, and Biggie's as much an icon as any rapper. So this will be another test of how much this current voting bloc will embrace Hip Hop.
5. Pat Benatar - This is my other easy pick. Benatar should pick up the Stevie Nicks vote and sail in.
6. Whitney Houston - While it's true that voters don’t always embrace R&B acts anymore, Houston seems just too big to get passed over. But then I think of the voting bloc of current Hall members, and realize it’s dominated by Classic Rockers. And suddenly her chances start to shrink. Hope Clive Davis was lobbying voters.
The Rest
Judas Priest
MC5
Motorhead
T. Rex
Thin Lizzy - Won't all these bands split votes? Five hard rockin' bands on the same ballot. MC5 now on their 5th try. T. Rex, Thin Lizzy and Motorhead 1st time. There was a buzz about the T. Rex nomination. They should do well with the Classic Rock vote. As for Judas Priest, I went back and forth on their chances. NomCommer Alan Light said, when Priest were first nominated in 2018, that they fared poorly with voters. So, what will change? A couple inductee classes later and some more classic rockers among the voting bloc?
Depeche Mode - The induction of the Cure last year should help Depeche Mode get closer to induction, if not put them over. I'm still worried about 80's synth bands and how voters continue to treat them. The Cure had a Rock element to their sound. Synth-Rock bands? This will be a good test.
Kraftwerk - 6th time on the ballot for the Electronica pioneers. Kraftwerk's critical standing hasn't helped them, and voters seem to know little about them.
Rufus featuring Chaka Khan - Admirable for NomCom member Amy Linden to get Chaka on the ballot again. It's the 4th time with Rufus, twice solo for Chaka. But they gave her even less of a chance by putting her on the ballot with Whitney.
Soundgarden - Chris Cornell's death could bring in a wave of sympathy votes. Being a first-time nominee from the post-Classic Rock era might also bring in some new votes. Wouldn't be surprised to seem them get in right away.
Todd Rundgren - What a puzzler Rundgren's nominations have become. With his Classic Rock connections, and being a long-time artist who is still playing and recording, I thought his chances last year were solid. But he couldn't crack through the final Top 7. While Rundgren certainly qualifies for a Musical Excellence pick, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen either. His 2nd nomination in a row, but his first seemed like his best chance.
With a pathetic 3 female nominees again. I've bitched about this from the moment the nominees were announced. When will the tone-deaf heads of the Hall (Landau, Peresman, Harris) make changes to correct this? Why can’t they bring more women onto the NomCom to balance out the men’s club that it’s become?
No pre-1965 acts nominated. How does my long-standing proposal for a Veterans Committee look now?
Also a whopping 2 R&B acts. Maybe 3 if you count the Michael McDonald Doobies era. I’m depressed just typing this.
With 16 nominees, I don't know how they'll play this. Last year it was 7/15. For 2020, I say 6 inductees, but hoping 7. But I topped out at 6.
Looking over the ballot, there were only 2 names that were shoo-ins. With many more in contention for the last 4 slots.
Inductees
1. Dave Matthews Band - 7/7 of the last Fan Vote winners got in. Will this be the year the spell is broken? I guess the streak has to end. Here's the thing: most people aren't paying attention to the Hall's statement that the Top 5 fan vote leaders count for 1 ballot only. A majority believe that the winner gets inducted. The DMB are a well-respected band, with a passionate fan base. But until the streak is broken. I have to go with the Fan Vote Winner again this year.
2. Doobie Brothers - There are only 2 easy picks for me this year. And this is one of them. A Long Runnin' Classic Rock staple, who are still out touring.
3. Nine Inch Nails - With his movie and TV scores, Trent Reznor is as much a musical presence as he was during NIN's heyday. He's even warmed up to the idea of a Rock Hall induction. A sly way of garnering more votes?
4. Notorious B.I.G. - When the nominees were first announced I thought this was a slam dunk. A
couple months later, and I'm not so sure. 2Pac got in right away, and Biggie's as much an icon as any rapper. So this will be another test of how much this current voting bloc will embrace Hip Hop.
5. Pat Benatar - This is my other easy pick. Benatar should pick up the Stevie Nicks vote and sail in.
6. Whitney Houston - While it's true that voters don’t always embrace R&B acts anymore, Houston seems just too big to get passed over. But then I think of the voting bloc of current Hall members, and realize it’s dominated by Classic Rockers. And suddenly her chances start to shrink. Hope Clive Davis was lobbying voters.
The Rest
Judas Priest
MC5
Motorhead
T. Rex
Thin Lizzy - Won't all these bands split votes? Five hard rockin' bands on the same ballot. MC5 now on their 5th try. T. Rex, Thin Lizzy and Motorhead 1st time. There was a buzz about the T. Rex nomination. They should do well with the Classic Rock vote. As for Judas Priest, I went back and forth on their chances. NomCommer Alan Light said, when Priest were first nominated in 2018, that they fared poorly with voters. So, what will change? A couple inductee classes later and some more classic rockers among the voting bloc?
Depeche Mode - The induction of the Cure last year should help Depeche Mode get closer to induction, if not put them over. I'm still worried about 80's synth bands and how voters continue to treat them. The Cure had a Rock element to their sound. Synth-Rock bands? This will be a good test.
Kraftwerk - 6th time on the ballot for the Electronica pioneers. Kraftwerk's critical standing hasn't helped them, and voters seem to know little about them.
Rufus featuring Chaka Khan - Admirable for NomCom member Amy Linden to get Chaka on the ballot again. It's the 4th time with Rufus, twice solo for Chaka. But they gave her even less of a chance by putting her on the ballot with Whitney.
Soundgarden - Chris Cornell's death could bring in a wave of sympathy votes. Being a first-time nominee from the post-Classic Rock era might also bring in some new votes. Wouldn't be surprised to seem them get in right away.
Todd Rundgren - What a puzzler Rundgren's nominations have become. With his Classic Rock connections, and being a long-time artist who is still playing and recording, I thought his chances last year were solid. But he couldn't crack through the final Top 7. While Rundgren certainly qualifies for a Musical Excellence pick, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen either. His 2nd nomination in a row, but his first seemed like his best chance.
posted by Tom Lane at 10:40 AM
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