Inductee Predictions: 2023 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame
There are 14 nominees this year, the lowest total since 2010. But a lot of new nominees. Six first time nominees and two first year eligibles. There are six names I feel confident about. After that a potential seventh inductee is up in the air. All of my performer picks appear on the ballot for the first time, which might be a stretch, but we'll see how things play out. Never forget, voters tend to favor newly nominated names.
Inductees
Cyndi Lauper - This 80's icon never stopped recording after her hits dried up in 1989. She's one Oscar away from an EGOT. Her videos, support for humanitarian causes and the music she made in the 80's will get her in on her first try. First nomination.
George Michael - One of the biggest stars of the 80's yet to be inducted. He made the jump from the frothy Pop of Wham to more adult issues on his own. First time nominated.
Missy Elliott - Inducted as the first female rapper into the Songwriters Hall of Fame in 2019. It seems the NomCom was just waiting for her to become eligible to make her the first female rapper to get inducted. In the past few years she's been racking up many career accolades as well. First year eligible.
Sheryl Crow - She seemed to be everywhere in 2022. A new documentary, performances at the 2022 Rock Hall Ceremony and the Kennedy Center Honors. Widely admired by many current Hall of Famers, she has a solid chance on her first nomination.
Warren Zevon - Most voters will find it hard to believe he's never been nominated. Outside of the Excitable Boy album and his one Top 40 hit, "Werewolves of London", Zevon never had much commercial success. But what he had was critical acclaim and universal love from many of his fellow musicians, both when he was alive and in the 20 years since his passing. First time nominated.
White Stripes - This is my Wild Card pick. But I'm not positive about their chances. Soundgarden, Kate Bush, New Order/Joy Division were all considered for this slot, which is my #7 pick. Jack White is a much respected figure nowadays. Let’s see if that’s enough. First year eligible
Willie Nelson - Nelson turns 90 on April 29th. The face of Outlaw Country, which I like to remind people had a big Rock & Roll following when it took off in the 70's. Nelson has also recorded with tons of people in many genres. An easy pick. First nomination.
The Rest
A Tribe Called Quest - I was wondering if they would get shelved this year for De La Soul or Outkast. Their second nomination in a row, but on a tough ballot it will be hard to break through again.
Iron Maiden - Metal acts will continue to struggle. Judas Priest are more well known with Classic Rock staples and they couldn't get the votes. I don't think Maiden will either. 2nd nomination.
Joy Division/New Order - In which the NomCom goes the way of Parliament/Funkadelic and Small Faces/Faces route. I’m curious to see if these two bands will get in on their first try when the Cure and Depeche Mode didn’t. First nomination.
Kate Bush - Here comes the biggest question mark of the ballot. Bush had a glorious Summer of 2022 thanks to Stranger Things resurrecting "Running Up That Hill" close to the top of the U.S. Charts. It's this success that has many believing she will finally get inducted after four tries. Had voting for the Hall began last Summer, I would agree, but last Summer seems so long ago. Still her chances are higher than they've ever been. Also, if she doesn't get the votes, the Hall may induct her in the Musical Excellence category. 4th nomination.
Rage Against the Machine - This is their 5th nomination between 2018-2023. The only year they missed was 2020. Because Tom Morello is on the NomCom, I wonder if it's hard not to have to pick Rage as a nominee every year. But if nom #5 doesn’t do it, then it’s time to think of another way to get them in.
Soundgarden - I was one of those who thought they would be a fyn when they first got nominated in 2020. But looking back at that ballot they were up against a bunch of classic rockers like T. Rex, Judas Priest, Thin Lizzy, MC5, Motorhead, Doobie Brothers. Lots of vote splitting that year. This year's ballot is more friendly towards them and a three year absence might help. 2nd nomination.
Spinners - Back on the ballot after 7 years, mostly because the death of Thom Bell last December brought their name back into the NomCom room. The good news is that they have the classic R&B lane all to themselves. There were no other female, male or R&B groups nominated this year. Also, being off the ballot for 7 years might get them to pick up a few more votes. Many won't remember the last time they were nominated. Others might have thought they were already in. This will most likely be their last chance at induction. 4th nomination.
posted by Tom Lane at 9:15 AM
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