Thursday, January 19, 2023

2023 Rock Hall Nominee Predictions

  And so begins the Rick Krim era of the NomCom.  With Krim taking over for Jon Landau as the head of the NomCom many people are wondering how the 2023 ballot will differ from previous ones.  My guess is not that much.  Krim and John Sykes worked together at MTV/VH1 so expect to see continued focus on 80's/90's acts.  The question is what type of genres will get more representation on the ballot?  The NomCom will continue to do what they always do and that is present a mixture of genres for their ballot.  But will Krim's first ballot include more rap, metal, pop nominees than before?  What about R&B, alternative and indie rock?  

  But remember. The Hall and HBO want big names to promote for induction night. So always expect a few household names to populate the ballot. 

  If you listened to the Nick Bambach's  Rock In Retrospect 2023 Rock Hall Nominees Draft episode that myself and three others were guests on, then you have an idea of what my predictions are for this year. There's a lack of worthy (imo) first year eligibles that have a chance of getting into the Hall in 2023.  I'm predicting only one newly eligible this year. So 2023 should be a year for the NomCom to catch up on artists that have been waiting patiently for too long. 

  Predicting nominees is always the toughest part because we have so little information on what artists are mentioned at those yearly NomCom meetings. 

For the 2023 ballot I went with 17 artists because that's how many were nominated last year.

B-52's - Hey, Devo are great, but after 3 tries, it might be time to give them a rest. And these new wave legends are the perfect choice. They received a ton of publicity in 2022 for announcing their "farewell tour. No previous nominations. 

Chaka Khan - Her absence from the ballot last year, after 6 straight appearances, had many thinking she would get a Musical Excellence award.  But it didn't happen.  I'm hesitant about this nomination.  But we know that there's a least one member of the NomCom that still wants her in.  7 total nominations so far (4 w/Rufus, 3 solo). 

Cher -  This is what I mean by the Hall & HBO wanting big names.  This never before nominated legend would be the biggest icon on this years ballot. 

Cyndi Lauper - I like to use the Songwriters Hall of Fame as a gauge of an artists appeal in the music industry.  Lauper was inducted there in 2015.  With Pat Benatar and the Eurythmics finally inducted attention has to turn to Lauper as the next 80's icon to get in (I know she did many things after the 80's, but that is the decade she's most identified with). Never nominated. 

Dave Matthews Band - So is it a one and done for the 2020 fan ballot winner?  It would be odd if that happens.  So after a three year absence maybe it's time to bring Matthews back. One previous nomination. 

Dionne Warwick - Will it be three nominations in a row for Dionne?  This one has me torn.  Roberta Flack announced last year that she had ALS.  She has a PBS American Masters documentary showing in late January.  But Dionne's documentary was on CNN January 1st of this year.  Dionne's 82, Roberta will be 86 in February.  I think Roberta would have an excellent chance as an FYN.  Her baby boomer vote would be huge.  But going with Dionne again. 

George Michael - Keeping with the 80's legends, Michael is certainly near the top.  And he was still putting out solid albums in the 90's.  Six years after his death, now seems the right time for his first nomination. 

Iron Maiden - With Judas Priest finally inducted, attention turns to what Metal/Hard Rock act fills their slot.  Both Motorhead and Iron Maiden are the top names and both were nominated once before. 

Kate Bush - 2023 seems like the best chance for Kate Bush.  Thanks to Stranger Things, she had a resurgence in popularity.  My prediction is she's either voted in or gets a Musical Excellence award. But it's going to happen for her this year.  3 previous nominations.

Kool & The Gang - When Lionel Richie got inducted last year, many of us wondered why the never nominated Commodores were left behind.  Anybody remember R&B bands?  The last one inducted was Earth, Wind & Fire in 2000.  But give the NomCom credit, they've put up War, Chic. Rufus w/Chaka, Meters and the J.B.'s since. One of the oddest omissions from the Hall is the immensely popular, long-running Kool & the Gang. Now in its 54th!! year and amazingly, never nominated. They've got the longevity for sure, but they also have hits that everyone knows.  In 2018, four of its members were inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame.  Besides, there aren't many R&B bands in the Hall.  Isley Brothers, Parliament/Funkadelic, Booker T. & the M.G.'s, Sly & The Family Stone and EWF. 

Mariah Carey - Here's a name that everyone keeps waiting to happen.  But this is the first time I'm predicting her.  It's possible that the NomCom wants Mary J. Blige in first.  But there's no denying Carey's credentials.  Inducted into the Song Hall last year, she's racked up big stats and many awards.  This seems like her year, but don't discount another Blige nomination. 

Missy Elliott - So here we are in 2023 and not one female rapper has received a nomination.  But now comes Missy as an FYE and this might be why the NomCom waited.  The first female rapper inducted into the Song Hall (2019), I think she will be the first nominated for the Rock Hall.

New York Dolls - Sometimes you have to give the NomCom credit for perseverance.  Six nominations for the MC5 and three for the Dolls.  Are voters inching them closer?  Who knows?  I'm giving them another shot for 2023. 

Outkast - A Tribe Called Quest?  Didn't happen for them last year? De La Soul? Music finally streaming in March, but are they more popular than Tribe with voters?  However Outkast could break through.  A six time Grammy winner, including Album of the Year in 2004, they have the crossover hits those other two acts didn't. Never nominated. 

Sheryl Crow - Talk about being everywhere in 2022.  A documentary, a Rock Hall performance, a Kennedy Center Honors performance, inducted into the Austin City Limits Hall of Fame (which was shown on PBS).  She even showed up to introduce an act at the CMAS's.  So, if visibility is a plus, 2023 seems like her best shot at a first nomination. 

Soundgarden - Count me in as one of those who thought they would get in on their first ballot in 2020.  But looking back I can see how they missed out.  Other Rock nominees that year: Motorhead, Thin Lizzy, Judas Priest, T. Rex, MC5. With T. Rex the only one getting in.  Talk about splitting votes.  So three years later it might be time for a second nomination. 

Warren Zevon - I don't really think Zevon has any more chance at a nom now than any other year.  But I'm using his name as an example that there's still plenty of life in the baby boomer vote.  Many popular names still out there like Joe Cocker, Roberta Flack, Harry Nilsson, Peter Frampton, Jethro Tull, Bad Company.  Zevon's not a household name like some of those, but he has a devoted fan base among many current Hall of Famers.  Never nominated.

Other names I considered predicting:  Roberta Flack, Willie Nelson, Pointer Sisters, Sade, Motorhead, War,  Los Lobos, Beck, Mary J. Blige, Destiny's Child
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